tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post3064615130326692790..comments2024-01-09T08:21:38.158+02:00Comments on Finnish Housing Bubble Bursting - Asuntokupla: Finnish Housing Market - Biggest Bubble EVER?HousingFinlandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-82377243259457789202010-03-15T23:49:41.308+02:002010-03-15T23:49:41.308+02:00You put all my thinking with the right words ... j...You put all my thinking with the right words ... just wait and see ... I had predicted a double dip recession and we are getting there slowly though ... no recovery before 2012 is my guess ... but only a painfull correction ...<br />Would be great to have further discussion with you ...<br />I will follow your post with deep interest ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-43444388448224051902010-02-08T12:33:50.610+02:002010-02-08T12:33:50.610+02:00Viking line cancelling a spanish Ferry cant be goo...Viking line cancelling a spanish Ferry cant be good news for spain or for the Nordic tourist and trade outlook. Nokia sheds hundreds more jobs. Tax increases? Plenty of strikes.Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-34010832893117571362010-02-06T21:07:37.148+02:002010-02-06T21:07:37.148+02:00I agree with the fall in commodity prices in the s...I agree with the fall in commodity prices in the short-term, i.e. within the next several months. That just means it's an even better time to buy - silver going to $10 an ounce? great I'll buy up even more! - in the long-term, i.e. later this year or next year those prices will rise.<br /><br />After that rise - as proven in a bet by two economists - the real price in the long run (over years) for commodities will always go lower - because of new technology and substitution for different material.<br /><br />So in short - hold gold, oil, silver, etc. for the next 2-3 years then sell off, unless of course these (though unlikely) become backed by some currency (or a basket of currencies)Billpete002https://www.blogger.com/profile/07749131754358501693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-33635283268033169922010-02-06T17:07:26.410+02:002010-02-06T17:07:26.410+02:00Thanks Andrew and Billpete, for your constructive ...Thanks Andrew and Billpete, for your constructive comments.<br /><br />Concerning Gold, I still think we will be heading for record high in the months to come, over 1200 or higher...reflecting the potential disastrous situation that could unfold within a year or two. <br /><br />The idea could be supported by the fact that the worse in front of us (contrary to what high profile economists and politicians which have been repeating that the worse was behind and of course that was largely supported and echoed by the media...it could partly explain why the consumer confidence is at pre-crisis level and are blindly continuing leveraging themselves (debt) to absurd levels).<br /><br />So at the beginning you had a banking crisis, the government and central bankers came to the rescue...now the same banks (that were rescued indirectly by the citizens) are speculating and betting against states and currencies ready to make them fall driven by greed and quick and easy gain (see Greece, Spain, Portugal,... UK? China? Russia? (US?-maybe not), etc...)...<br /><br />So it looks like we have a "financial system" that cannot be controled and has no remorse and neither memory...<br /><br />I'm just wondering how all this will end...as state are now putting tax payer money in the frontline for a system that is clearly not sound and that is architecturally weak(based on keynesian model that has reached its limit) with wrong governance processes (regulation keeps on failing even as today, power concentrated in too few players).<br /><br />To my view 1990 crisis looks like a drop in the ocean compared to the current global crisis as we have now almost all the players that are very highly leveraged, burden by debt (consumers, Banks, States) and contrary to previous episode, the emerging markets that are overheating with unsound monetary policies. <br /><br />Contrary to what Billpete said, I think we could still see a period where raw material and petrol could collapse (30$?) due to the fact that the economy has the potential to relapse to similar level or worse to that of end of 2008 (this time without possible fiscal stimulus and monetary actions)...<br /><br />Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and the event has unfloding so fast and the situation has never been so hard to predict.<br /><br />To finish I would like to highlight a sentence fron Trichet last press conference Q&A, regarding the banks:<br /><br />"First of all, obviously I prefer that the banks are making money. Because when they were losing money it created a catastrophe. We have to be consistent: we ourselves have been in a very difficult situation, because we had a terrible crisis of the financial sector. Second, profits, in our opinion, should serve not to distribute enormous amounts of dividends to shareholders; not to distribute enormous amounts of bonuses, packages, remunerations to the members of these institutions;"<br /><br />I start to think that Trichet is slowly but surely losing its control on banks and that banks will look at their own interest...Trichet the last "Don Quixotte"?HousingFinlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-31815927912694504632010-02-06T09:39:40.232+02:002010-02-06T09:39:40.232+02:00gold is will be volatile for the near future with ...gold is will be volatile for the near future with Greece, Spain, Ireland, etc. and the US. <br /><br />To be frank I think Greece is a side show compared to Spain and the US. <br /><br />Spain is in much worse shape - especially the banking and housing sectors than Greece.<br /><br />While the US is facing a currency crisis - I just loved Obama's address stating he wants to curb the deficit - yet, wants to spend more by increasing the debt ceiling, even though a debt is not a bad thing it is when it immediately adds to the deficit...<br /><br />I'm expecting a rally in materials and commodities. The price of oil may slip down further, but I doubt OPEC will be keeping it that way - I recently read an article about how they are considering dropping supply because there's too much oil sitting on the market.Billpete002https://www.blogger.com/profile/07749131754358501693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-52003765050449437512010-02-05T21:32:03.694+02:002010-02-05T21:32:03.694+02:00BillPete, Quite a week for gold. And deflation...BillPete, Quite a week for gold. And deflationary news is from time to time really worrying me so i see a relationship there. Oil also looks like it will go back to the 50's.Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-13757406804666135492010-02-04T19:18:54.078+02:002010-02-04T19:18:54.078+02:00Thanks for the correction Andrew - I believe I was...Thanks for the correction Andrew - I believe I was still thinking in terms of dollars ;IBillpete002https://www.blogger.com/profile/07749131754358501693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-33984459791573560862010-02-04T13:21:48.213+02:002010-02-04T13:21:48.213+02:00More of the usual media commentary on the economy
...More of the usual media commentary on the economy<br /><br />Konecranes Q4 pretax [b]dives 75 pct yr/yr[/b] <br /><br />"According to the Confederation of Finnish Industries´ January business tendency survey, the very weak business cycle continued to weigh down Finnish companies," the EK added.<br /><br />"Significant recovery has not yet taken place, even though the business outlook did gradually stabilise towards the end of last year."Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-56624678103361924752010-02-04T11:20:46.991+02:002010-02-04T11:20:46.991+02:00The european gaurantee limits were raised from 20k...The european gaurantee limits were raised from 20k to 50k per bank account in october 2008.Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-58856636258172015292010-02-04T09:17:20.688+02:002010-02-04T09:17:20.688+02:00People will leave money in the bank if it's in...People will leave money in the bank if it's invested in TIPS or other inflation protected products.<br /><br />Or if they believe their investments will be higher than inflation (or they are going long).<br /><br />But as for normal savings - which is a waste of money, generally speaking, yeah these people will lose out if they leave their money in the banks. I suppose the only hope they have by leaving their money in increasingly insolvent banks is the government will repay them 200k (unless this figure has changed?)<br /><br />- on a more economical note, if the government didn't guarantee bank accounts of x amount it would decrease the moral hazard banks have towards investing our money - because we would be much more privy to take our money out if the bank was investing foolishly, but I suppose the general consensus is that the average Pekka on the street doesn't know a thing about money/banking/finance/or anything and is expected to just hand over his money like a sheep each month...Billpete002https://www.blogger.com/profile/07749131754358501693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-35912676311099831942010-02-03T22:03:43.339+02:002010-02-03T22:03:43.339+02:00Well there is plenty of media stories of doom and ...Well there is plenty of media stories of doom and gloom. This has been relentless for over a year now.<br /><br />http://newsroom.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?app=803&newsid=23788<br /><br />If you add in the worries about country collapse and bank collapse and incredibly low interest rates from the ECB people are driven to protect themselves by getting out of cash.<br /><br />For the deflationary scenario to work people have to be happy leaving money in the banks<br /><br />Maybe you need to emphasise how robust strong and incredible the the banks are? :-)Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-70362445003861571342010-02-03T21:13:00.651+02:002010-02-03T21:13:00.651+02:00...an example of the current disconnect:
http://w......an example of the current disconnect:<br /><br />http://www.stat.fi/til/tlv/2009/10/tlv_2009_10_2010-02-03_tie_001_en.htmlHousingFinlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-73554448259371772152010-02-03T20:57:23.010+02:002010-02-03T20:57:23.010+02:00So Mr Roubini aka "Mr Realism" seem to b...So Mr Roubini aka "Mr Realism" seem to be again amongst the few that dare to say to the public the reality as it is without fearing the consequences ...in totall opposition with politicians and media.<br /><br />The other explanation to this "irrational exuberance" that seem to be hitting the Finnish housing market is the lack of honesty from politicians, bankers, economist and media on the Finnish landscape.<br /><br />So be it, more you keep people in the dark (current absurd pricing, as actually happenned in 1990) about the current situation and more the correction will substantial...<br /><br />At least this is my view and doesn't engage anybody...just sharing my thought...HousingFinlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-73946573701822766252010-02-03T16:50:18.507+02:002010-02-03T16:50:18.507+02:00Nouriel Roubini telling us that he believes things...Nouriel Roubini telling us that he believes things are going to be difficult in Euroland<br /><br />http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c81015c4-1034-11df-841f-00144feab49a.htmlAndrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-9402563482585645642010-02-02T10:00:32.657+02:002010-02-02T10:00:32.657+02:00Did not panic ... made 10% ...are you talking abou...Did not panic ... made 10% ...are you talking about housing or stock market?<br /><br />The horizon for housing is for about 20-25 years while speculating in the stock market can be 1 day to 1 year.<br /><br />10% has to be taken with care as it is on a very thin market (very low amount of transaction compared to previous years) and in addition concerns mostly very small flat (10m2 to 50m2) where a bunch of investors have flooded to try to cash in on the back on the younger generation or the poor (on the renting market)...<br /><br />So the fundamentals are indeed very poor...hence the reason of this article to warn (maybe the last warning according to my analysis) about a very high probability of a severe or historical correction.<br /><br />Now you may be free to buy or advise others to buy...we will check the outcome in 1-3 years time.HousingFinlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-57283639420569620222010-02-02T01:11:51.762+02:002010-02-02T01:11:51.762+02:00So, those who did not panic and invested in the He...So, those who did not panic and invested in the Helsinki area made about 10% (http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Housing+prices+rising+in+spite+of+recession/1135252549479)..<br />So much for your pessimistic forecasts :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com