tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post4952089961729372293..comments2024-01-09T08:21:38.158+02:00Comments on Finnish Housing Bubble Bursting - Asuntokupla: Finnish Construction Sector - A Market ViewHousingFinlandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-4660188444159247902011-08-04T13:54:35.577+03:002011-08-04T13:54:35.577+03:00@ HousingFinland
There is a clear deceleration in ...@ HousingFinland<br />There is a clear deceleration in the economy for the sceond quarter in the rest of Europe as well - France will most likely have a lower growth in the second quarter with a unemployment rate increase ... <br />Let s see how Germany will weather the storm?<br />I was surprised by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (actually the only pure private central bank) to decrease the interest rate ... that was useless ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-34465820861325859312011-08-04T13:10:02.855+03:002011-08-04T13:10:02.855+03:00"The lobby’s construction outlook indicator p..."The lobby’s construction outlook indicator plunged to +9 points from +24 in April, with a services indicator of +11 points, down from +20."<br /><br />http://newsroom.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?app=803&newsid=30504<br /><br /><br />Indeed, give it another 6-12 month, and the confirmation of a multi-generation top will be finally reached as always been foreseen in this blog. The time of high leverage has come to an end, time that started in the beginning of the 80's, a 3 decades debt binge.<br /><br />Balmat, I will make an update on loan, debt growth pretty soon, as it is a good indicator to predict where the market is heading.<br /><br />Andrew, regarding your statement, indeed I would agree, if we were in the UK, US, Sweden or Norway. But we are in Europe- and the Euro is in danger.HousingFinlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-28531432753668624712011-08-03T22:33:00.604+03:002011-08-03T22:33:00.604+03:00Well the difference this time is that the stronger...Well the difference this time is that the stronger countries (Germany, France and ... well very small strong economies ...) won t be able to increase their debt level ... therefore I doubt that they will be able to do something ... their hands are tight by the market.<br /><br />Regarding Finland, Nokia is unfortunately finished, the paper industry not super good either and will suffer from the next recession (less advertising so less publishing ... therefore lower need of high value papers etc ...)<br />So Finland will soon loose its strong economy status and will not be able to do that much ... <br /><br />Since we are talking of countries, soon shall be seen as being several Quarters and/or few years ...<br /><br />Let s see ....<br /><br />I have not seen the exposure of Nordic banks to the PIGS debt ... did you have a look?<br /><br />---------------------------<br />To conclude, great analysis as always ... how does the volume of new loan issuance look like in Finland (sharp decrease)? also what about the debt level of household (increase)? Have we seen an increase of defaults on credit cards debts (increase)? <br />If these indicators go to the wrong direction (north for the two last ones), Finland will head to major problems and the housing market will suffer ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-2760876566591179152011-08-03T12:55:13.224+03:002011-08-03T12:55:13.224+03:00Low growth in the stronger countries just means lo...Low growth in the stronger countries just means lower interest rates and QE or whatever it takes to make the deflationary scenario very unlikelyandrewnoreply@blogger.com