tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post9214319218709403077..comments2024-01-09T08:21:38.158+02:00Comments on Finnish Housing Bubble Bursting - Asuntokupla: The Housing Market, a Population Perspective : Part 1HousingFinlandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-84947069361899844632010-03-02T17:58:25.913+02:002010-03-02T17:58:25.913+02:00This analysis is based on the data provided by the...This analysis is based on the data provided by the European statistical agency.<br /><br />With regard to Statistics Finland, they clearly mention the following: <br /><br />"According to the projection, the annual number of deaths will exceed births in 2034, but net immigration is forecast to sustain population growth even after this. The volume of net immigration is assumed to be 15,000 persons"<br /><br />The scenario I gave (Eurostat) compare to the one that they (Stat Finland) put is of a divergence of about 500 000 for 2030 which is a about 25 000 per year during the first 20 years... which is a massive difference... which I think It's utopique :-> (I think they have mathematical or modelling issues...see their GDP prediction in 2007-2008...)<br /><br />Immigration boomed up to 2009 because of job creation during unsustainable world growth fueled by world wide ill monetary policies, world wide massive credit growth and world wide unregulated financial system, on top you had a (relativly speaking) local major baby boom and have not yet felt the impact of the local baby boomer of 1945-50...<br /><br />However as they (Statistics Finland) honestly put it, it is only a prediction... :<br /><br />"The calculations mainly indicate the outcome from the present development under the assumption that it continues unchanged. Thus, they should not be interpreted as descriptions of the inevitable."<br /><br />"Present development continue unchanged"... I think this is were they are making a gross mistake or have a misunderstanding ... Current data shows te contrary, the situation is changing very rapidly and we are emerging into an era that will be different than the past 2-3 decades... (see the fall in GDP, record fall in tax revenue, record fall in the export trade)<br /><br />Anyway I will try to clarify the detail with regard to the population as I think one or the other is misleading (Eurostat or statistic finland)HousingFinlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11208457813231210207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8492416005551532574.post-60285926198378035142010-03-02T16:29:23.846+02:002010-03-02T16:29:23.846+02:00Population in Finland is actually set to grow acco...Population in Finland is actually set to grow according to Statistics Finland, which would affect the basis of your analysis:<br /><br />http://www.stat.fi/til/vaenn/2009/vaenn_2009_2009-09-30_tie_001_en.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com