Thursday, 14 August 2008

Recoupling...


"The euro zone economy recorded its first ever contraction in the second quarter, pulled down by falling activity in its biggest economies, which could lead to a technical recession.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat on Thursday estimated that the economy of the 15 countries sharing the euro contracted 0.2 percent against the first quarter and grew 1.5 percent year-on- year
."


When the U.S. Sneeze, Europe catch a cold... that saying is still true.
What about when the U.S. gets pneumonia, Europe catch a...? let's cross the fingers - hand and feet-

Europe is technically about to enter a recession if the contraction is confirmed next quarter, which most probably will happen. Remember that the ECB through its president warned about a very difficult 3rd quarter.

When Europe was in a recession in 2001-2002, house prices started to fall until the ECB put an end to it by lowering the interest rates to an historical low. It not only put a floor but propulsed house price to the sky, thus creating a bubble that some generation had never witnessed.

The bubble is about to deflate, 2009 will see a big drop in price between 10-15% followed by the same amount in 2010 and 2011.

Would they stabilize? it's all about the ratio population and house availability and affordability.

At the end it's all about how attractive Finland is... Ask the beggars:
"Finland attracts fewer beggars than expected -social services"

Only around one hundred beggars arrived in Helsinki this summer from abroad, the Helsinki City Social Services Department told the Finnish News Agency (STT) on Thursday.

"The Roma say they are looking for work. The group is very motley, what they hold in common is bad education and lack of language skills," said Jarmo Räihä from the Social Services Department
"

Yes Jarmo, next time beggars will have a university degree and speak 2 or 3 foreign languages. Is that guy dumb? i guess they won't be beggars if they were educated as I think Romania being part of Europe will have as much chance to be wealthy as Finland thus attracting foreigners...the Fact Finnish(?) Nokia open a Factory there...

Frankly if I was a beggar, I would choose Costa del Sol or the cote d'azur...why would one choose a country where summer is similar to Autumn ? hummm after a thought maybe beggars don't care about sun but more about money..not sure if Finnish are the kind of people that give money to beggars with all the discrimination I read about beggars in the past 2 years in newspapers....

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Lieutenant Colonel Rytkönen feels that it is fairly unlikely that Finland would be faced with an uncontrolled flood of illegal immigrants very soon."

Really?

Andrew said...

here is the accumulated list i have made of all price changes for properties in Helsinki that were listed on 13th August 2008 and are still listed. Not a definative list as i am doing this by eye and might miss the larger price falls:-) 35 falls and one price increase. Not large % falls. Largest price fall 50,000 from 880 to 830

Helsinki, Äestäjäntie 35 A, Konala
omakotitalo 83 m² 250 000 € 230

Helsinki, Sädekuja 1, Puistola
omakotitalo 120 m² 260 000 € 258

Helsinki, Vallesmannintie 52, Tapaninkylä
omakotitalo 105 m² 270 000 € 255

Helsinki, Maamiehentie 4, Puistola
omakotitalo 105 m² 272 000 € 265

Helsinki, Puistolantanhua 1, Puistola
omakotitalo 130 m² 278 000 € 250

Helsinki, Maamiehentie 12, Heikinlaakso
omakotitalo 80 m² 332 000 € 325

Helsinki, Murattitie 4, Pukinmäki
omakotitalo 65 m² 348 500 € 338

Helsinki, Kuutsalontie 2 A, Vartiokylä
omakotitalo 100 m² 352 000 € 336

Helsinki, Kravuntie 12, Siltamäki
omakotitalo 129 m² 366 000 € 348

Helsinki, Solakallionpää 4, Itä-Pakila
omakotitalo 96 m² 385 000 € 369

Helsinki, Puunkaatajantie 32, Heikinlaakso
omakotitalo 124,7 m² 387 000 € 369

Helsinki, Ollilantie 13, Tapaninvainio
omakotitalo 157 m² 388 000 € 365

Helsinki, Hevonojantie 4, Puistola
omakotitalo 141 m² 408 000 € 385

Helsinki, Paloheinä
omakotitalo 112 m² 420 000 € 410

Helsinki, Äestäjäntie 35, Konala
omakotitalo 83 m² 420 000 € 380

Helsinki, Papinmäentie 7, Länsi-Pakila yksityinen
omakotitalo 153 m² 420 000 increased 430

Helsinki, Kyläkunnantie, Länsi-Pakila GALLERIA

KIINTEISTÖTOIMISTO MERJA RAUTIO LKV (A
omakotitalo 190 m² 428 000 € 398

Helsinki, Kalannintie 4 B, Kaarela
omakotitalo 133,5 m² 438 000 € 425
Helsinki, Peilitie 12, Vartiokylä DomoShop
omakotitalo 123 m² 439 000 395

Helsinki, Sorolankuja 3 A, Kaarela
omakotitalo 152 m² 445 000 € 1. 425 2. 422

Helsinki, Västäräkintie 4 A 1, Tapaninvainio
omakotitalo 148 m² 459 000 € yes same house 450

Helsinki, Aurinkomäenkuja 5, Puistola
omakotitalo 146 m² 480 000 € 458

Helsinki, Pohjanpellontie 3 a, Tapaninvainio
omakotitalo 190 m² 490 000 € 445

Helsinki, Selim Lindqvistinkuja 2, Pitäjänmäki
omakotitalo 495 000 475

Helsinki, Sadetie 13, Malmi, Fallkulla
omakotitalo 170 m² 498 000 € 488

Helsinki, Lainkaarentie 14 A, Torpparinmäki
omakotitalo 188 m² 529 000 € same house? 493

Helsinki, Svanströminkuja 8, Laajasalo
omakotitalo 143 m² 575 000 € 565


Helsinki, Runonlaulajantie 45, Kaarela
omakotitalo 185 m² 580 000 € 548

Helsinki, Strömsintie 27, Marjaniemi
omakotitalo 111 m² 580 000 € 560

Helsinki, Siimakuja 13 B, Tapaninvainio
omakotitalo 130 m² 585 000 € 545

Helsinki, Eeronpolku 10, Tapanila yksityinen
omakotitalo 120 m² 607 000 € 596

Helsinki, Hepokalliontie 4, Jollas
omakotitalo 175 m² 708 000 € 705

Helsinki, Siamintie 4, Toukola
omakotitalo 180 m² 728 000 € 650

Helsinki, Sirkkalanrinne 4, Puistola
omakotitalo 190 m² 728 000 € 728

Helsinki, Ruorimiehentie 21, Jollas
omakotitalo 235 m² 790 000 € 749

Helsinki, Varjakanvalkama 6, Vartioharju
omakotitalo 181 m² 880 000 € 830

Andrew said...

just noticed that there are now two over 10% reductions

1. is in the earlier list

Helsinki, Siamintie 4, Toukola
omakotitalo 180 m² 728 000 € 650

2. I noticed today.

Helsinki, Kanuunatie 8, Etelä-Kaarela was 340 now 290 - 12%

And also noticed that one in the ealier list has no reduction and should not be there.

Helsinki, Sirkkalanrinne 4, Puistola
omakotitalo 190 m² 728 000 € 728

Anonymous said...

who are the real estate agency that provide those figures and change them within weeks?

There are supposed to know how to do their job and price correctly a house?

Are they all but speculators?

Andrew said...

"who are the real estate agency that provide those figures and change them within weeks?

There are supposed to know how to do their job and price correctly a house?

Are they all but speculators?"

Nothing so sinister or complicated - just a market in action.

In a rising market overpriced houses will eventually reach their assumed price and anybody can be an agent. In a falling market prices have to be seen as a bargain or of good value *now*. Agents also have to deal with unrealistic buyer expectations once a market has turned but that is never necessary in the rising market when all ships are floated eventually.

Andrew said...

"Agents also have to deal with unrealistic buyer expectations once a market has turned but that is never necessary in the rising market when all ships are floated eventually."

Should be unrealistic seller expectations. People remain in denial until denial is no longer possible. For example there is little publicity about falling prices and this blog maintains that prices 'will fall'. Prices are already falling.

HousingFinland said...

I agree with you Andrew, price in certain area have already started to fall.

I'm looking for a trend, a significant drop, as we are witnessing worldwide...

The world wide real estate frenzy has come to an end partly due to the end of "the great moderation"

The great moderation, a falling inflation that have allowed Central bankers to keep interest rates very low.

This was partly due to globalization and cheap commodities. Now inflation is a big issue in Emerging market that are indirectly exporting it worldwide. The impact is that interest rates will never go back to their lowest level.

Inflation will be contained but the price to pay is higher interest rates in the future...

Andrew said...

HousingFinland

It is all inter related. Western inflation has been high but recorded as being low. So people have been encouraged to speculate in houses because they see it as a way of preserving their wealth. Bankers have not had to worry about the negative effects of inflation because they have passed on the *devaluing* loans to some foreigner who has too much of the same currency to spend because they have been allowed to export to the borrowing countries. And now these same foreign people have rising wages and rising demands for what we westerners need. So.......what happens now?

My own crystal ball is more or less so confused now that anything is possible! Historically such confusing and difficult times are followed by chaos war and pestulance:-(

I have a jet plane ticket for October to NZ and a Finnish baby expected here for February! Chaos for me anyway!

In NZ people say 'No worries mate!'

So no worries eh!

:-)