Tuesday, 23 September 2008

Super K?




"Finnish regional daily Aamulehti on Sunday quoted the majority of the economists it had interviewed as saying that they saw Finland's jobless rate rising over the course of the next two years.

The finance ministry had said in its latest outlook it expected the country´s unemployment rate to fall.

Aamulehti interviewed economists from the Central Chamber of Commerce, the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK), the Labour Institute for Economic Research, the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

The paper added that Jouko Kangasniemi, the EK economist, was alone in backing the finance ministry's jobless rate forecast
."

Mr Jyrky "Uusimaa" Katainen, is predicting that unemployment is going to fall - please read the "Alice in the wonderland syndrome" if you have not -
So the forest industry is shedding job at light speed, the banking sectors will have to change it's business model - coming back to pre-credit Euphoria sanity check i.e 1996 - while other are not yet been ready to shed job as their backward looking indicator is telling them that it's hard to find people on the job market - they will have to wake up to a new reality that the global economy is falling of a cliff.

I bet that export will shrink to record next year, as people around the world are holding consumption amid a deterioration of the future expectation of their economy. They will start saving, and fast...

Goshh, it could look as ugly as 1990. 2009 will wipe out any budget surplus that the government optimistically planned making pocket of vulnerability going into 2010. Just hope that 2010 is not the eye of the storm... Remember in 1929 the crisis started, 1933 was the worse year. In 1989, the crisis started, 1991 was the worst time. A crisis started in 2001, the worse was 2003...

1 comment:

Andrew said...

"Super K? "

Credit cycles cycle.

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/cycle.html