Friday, 6 February 2009

Dramatic GDP Fall, Another Evidence...


Contraction has started, the economy is about to deliver ... delivering what? the worst downturn observed in an adult life? certainly.

Not surprising, as the credit market kind of collapse in the last quarter of 2008. This year won't be better has temporary layoffs combined with a housing slump will put the GDP in territory not observed since the "Winter" War.

Housing? well it will put inflation in check, most probably putting it in negative territory and this time, since 1995, housing will be a drag on the economy looking forward.

YIT? 95% drop in profit in last quarter, who can do worse? Most probably they will be the first recipient of the "Finnish TARP": building bridges, roads...

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

What happened to your article on the Nordea funds?

Andrew said...

If finland has been selling to or is involved in spanish construction you would have to worry after seeing this

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ccJp6C1xdZ8&fmt=18

HousingFinland said...

Hi Anonymous,

I wanted yet to check it, I publish it by mistake...I will put it again, as I didn't have much time lately...

Hi Andrew,

Well, I think Finland is more exposed to Russia and Baltics surrounding...as I have been highlighting many times here.

Although, this excess supply, excess capacity created during the boom time will hurt Spain and others indirectly...that could be a cause for deflation.

All company will be seeing a market that is shrinking, imagine the intense competition and imagine as well the price competition...unless they set up a cartel or suddenly a major geopolitical event surge, I do not see why price will not fall...

Central bankers inundated the market 5 years ago, thinking they were fighting the great depression, a little bit like Don Quichotte , fighting invisible enemy. So after all by fighting it too early they finally created it, a paradox?