In March , it seems that the downward trend was broken and that a recovery was appearing, it was short lived. Indeed in April the data show again a continued deterioration and no signs whatsoever of a recovery.
Let's look at the data.
The industrial output is still extremelly depressed:
The same can be seen in the new orders in manufacturing :
While at the same time, around the world the "growth" or "green shoots recovery" was partly fuelled by very low, dangerously low interest rates, government stimulus and money printing in some cases (US, UK etc...).
In some big country, the recovery could turn to the worse as they are creating the base for an economical tsunami. Here is more precisely what I mean:
"China’s new lending doubled in May and industrial output and retail sales climbed more than economists estimated as government stimulus spending revived the world’s third-biggest economy.Nethertheless in the past 3 months the policy makers had averted a confidence crisis.
New loans jumped to 664.5 billion yuan ($97 billion) from 318.5 billion yuan a year earlier, the central bank said today. Industrial-output growth accelerated to 8.9 percent and sales rose 15.2 percent, the statistics bureau said"
" 'The rapid growth of credit should be regarded as a warning sign,' Andrew Crockett, a member of the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s international advisory committee, said in Beijing today.
'Nearly always when we have financial difficulties at banking institutions, it’s preceded by rapid growth in lending,' said Crockett, also JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s international president."
In the meantime, I will advise to be very carefull if you are thinking about taking big debt -it is definetely not the moment - as this crisis has not yet reached it's full force and next year could be very decisive.
It is clear that the export market is being hit pretty badly, while in the meantime the internal consumption is not doing any better.
Kesko press release highlights some of the symptoms.
"In the building and home improvement trade, sales in May were €218.8 million, a decrease of 27.0%.
Sales in Finland were down 31.0%. Sales in foreign countries decreased by 23.6% in terms of euros and by 16.3% in terms of local currencies. In the Baltic countries, sales were down 33.5%.
In the car and machinery trade, VV-Auto's sales in May were €44.0 million, which is down by 46.5% compared with the previous year. "
According to Statistics Finland, retail trade sales fell by 2.2 per cent in March from March 2008. Sales volume fell by 3.5 per cent during the same time period.