Friday 21 August 2009

Food for Thought...

Sometime ago I met a very wise man, most probably aged about 150 years - the type of person you can only find in the middle of a myst, he told me : "a picture, my son, is worth a thousand's politicians words." ..I was astonished....well in the meantime he faxed me the picture...

So here is the picture :





Total collapse of granted dwelling permits...to help you digest that I have extracted two major information.

First, the recovery of the housing market that seemed to have occured from 2003 has been completely invalidated thus implying that the price growth observed during that period is irrational.

Second, looking at the nose diving evolution of the trend, we are clearly in an unchartered territory, something not experienced since at least a decade ago.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The nose dive in building should in the long term help to keep housing prices up, but in the short term it is an indication of how bad things are.

"islandCrow"

HousingFinland said...

Island crow , I have to disagree here...the schema is not the same as in the past. Let me explain that shortly.

First the baby boomers of the second worl war had a major impact of the previous housing boom due to a sudden need to build for those massive amount of first and generation...as of today they all retire and soon meet their angels if they have behaved well...

So the need for construction will mostly be driven by immigrant nothing and on the margin by the currrent population... immigration is linked to the economy and it has been badly wounded by the financial crisis as well as a lack of innovation etc...

All in all the need won't be big and the readjustment is currently taking pace while at the same time the housing buiding stock is accumulating that will soon put pressure on price and rent...

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the reply - I will need to take some time thinking about it (I am a slow thinker!).

My initial thought would be that this will kick in only, as you put it, when more people 'meet their angels' than new 'loud noises at one end and a little sense of responsiblity at the other' arrive, as a teacher put it when I was at school.

When I first came to Finland I had some population projections. In these the population should have been dropping quite fast by now. I am sure that will come but maybe not just yet.

"IslandCrow"

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