Take for example the free newspaper "METRO" that can be found in metro or train station. Every morning while sitting in the train, in the way to work, and I shortly observe people around me, one will be amazed by the amount of people reading this newspaper as addicts in need of their morning information. At the arrival, the target is achieved, most will probably have the same view of the world ...
TV can be put on the same level and it gets people scared!
Here is an example:
Finns perceive more threats around them now than during the cold war. According to an expert from the Finnish National Defence University, politicians are largely to blame for creating new threats.Another outrageous subject grossly abused by the Media and the politicians ... the "SWINE" or "H1N1" or "SIKA" or "PIG" Flue ... I wonder who come up with those names...
So the Piggy Flue have killed so far .....1 - one - Yksi person...
Yet it is considered as very dangerous disease while on the other hand more than 1000 - thousands are dying regularly from the same desease year after year, as shown in the following table while at the same time the bigger seller of alcohol is not behind bars (just kidding (see foot note)):
So my advise keep your mind "independant" and most importantly your judgement intact and not biased by the daily media calculated information coverage...Footnote and legal note: whatever it is said in this article is not of the responsability of the author , any reference to any entities may be accidental. Anything said above may not be true and may be removed at any stage, at anytime (you like it or not).
8 comments:
I had to do a double take on the title of the chart you posted. "Leading causes of death...by sex"
I had no idea that so many died because of sex.
The death rate amongst males was twice as high as amongst females leading one to wonder if there is a feminist plot to get rid of us males, or just the evolutionary process of survival of the more intelligent.
"Island Crow"
ps. I really must get more fresh air!
One think i have been following is the total amount of property advertised in Finland, and Omakotitalo in helsinki, Espoo and Tusuula. From memory the highest total figure was around 34000 last year and it tended to go up and down but then i noticed it just going down so I began writing it down.
http://www.oikotie.fi/myytavat%20asunnot
Date Helsinki Espoo Tuusula Finland
090711 133 138 59 25145
090721 131 130 60 24600
090727 136 127 60 24382
091006 126 134 37 21602
091017 124 130 42 21487
091029 119 119 41 20963
http://www.oikotie.fi/myytavat%20asunnot
Also noticing that advertised houses seem to sell quickly both on internet and locally in Tuusula, and Omakotitalo open homes are often well attended in Helsinki.
If there is going to be a housing crash inventory will at some point have to rise. The impression i have is that houses are selling rather than simply being held by the banks in foreclosure.
Do we have much evidence at all of foreclosure in Finland?
A few months ago it seemed that anecdotally and from the media that low cost investment flats were selling well also.
Meanwhile Nordea are reporting good profits, better margins and manageable loss rates and an improving outlook while places like Norway have rising house prices it is said. in places like NZ prices dipped but have now recovered to almost their peak level.
In Finland it seems that houses often sell for a fairly reasonable reduction off the asking price which sort of hides what might be really happening?
In Finland, the impression i have is that people are able to, for now, ride out the storm, use lower interest rates and hold on rather than be forced sellers.
Andrew,
Here is the View of the Ministry of Finance as takeb from their last report (http://www.vm.fi/vm/en/04_publications_and_documents/01_publications/02_economic_surveys/20090915Econom/Economic_Survey_2009.pdf):
"Investment still showed modest growth last year, even though the number of new building starts (excepting public service buildings) began sharply to
decline. Investment in residential construction was down by almost 10%.
Major building contractors in particular began to postpone some of their new
building starts as buyers in the housing market became more cautious, and the
stock of new unsold buildings began to grow."
Housing Finland
All i seem to know is that locally in HYRYLÄ Tuusula there were two sets of new builds with a total of about 30 rivatalos and flats for sale last year. They seemed to get occupied and now there are only two flats advertised for sale. For me the emptiness of these buildings was going to be my barometer of how bad things would be and it did not happen.
Flats and Rivatalo in helsinki might be accumulating unsold but i am not checking them. All i am checking is total units for sale in all of Finland and it is majorly lower now. But i am pretty convinced that prices of Omakotitalos have been reducing.
The problem for the constructors will be lack of new projects but probably it means the workers will be repairing existing. There must be a vast amount of existing needing substantial repairs and upgrades for want of cheaper labour
At the end of the day money is less valueable now because the cost of money is so much less thanks to M Trichet
Value of houses could easily fall for years while prices remain steady
Inflation will have to appear somewhere before the liquidity schemes are tightened up. Following that eventually rates will rise.
But it still seems to me that the major action that will guide rates will be what happens in the USA and there things will be bad for a few more years surely?
Does Finland have optionally payable amortising deferred interest mortgages that are about to reset out of the optionally payable part? And if they do is it not true that refinance options are available via the banks for most people?
Money today is exstraordinarily cheap. The shops still seem full and people with work must be doing very well with so much extra desposable money with such low rates. I remember in other recessions the roads went noticably quieter and this is not happening that i can tell although truck tonnage is i think down according to the stats
And as you know a chunk of us people are getting towards retirement age and Finland was short of skilled workers and it was going to get worse.
Of course if you read the media the baltics, eastern europe, austria spain ireland and the UK will collapse and Swedish banking will be bust and there is still time for that kind of doom. But the cheapness of money must be easing things in those areas
"For me the emptiness of these buildings was going to be my barometer of how bad things would be and it did not happen"
I will add that it is the worrying part. Readjustment is not happening due to two factor:
-extreme level of interest rates (record low)
-bank supporting the market by credit standard deterioration (despair to provide credit indirectly to create "money")
It's a little bit like when the stock market goes up and nobody understand the rational except the fact that there is plenty of money around until that drys out and the stock market crash.
I would see the same situation hapenning sometime next year, 2010 or in 2011. Maybe a crash in long bond market i.e a sudden rise of interest rates.
The risk of a sharp rise in interest rates is not null and is increase month after month (if the ECB do not make any move or trigger the rise too late).
This will have two implications:
-mortgage with variable rates will be hit hard (90% of the Finnish mortgage holder in Finland)
-less credit flowing which will futher depress the economy...
This could happen as many emerging country are applying desperate measure to save their economy - overly generous stimulus and interest rates that is putting pressure on commodity prices i.e Oil
see for example:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2gJKUZAwJv0&pos=1
Please remember this is just supposition and should not be taken as investment recommendations and should not affect your decisions with regard to housing purchase, everybody situation and objectives are different ...
I am aware of the credit card charges in the states rising overnight from 10 to 30% for many good customers.
I am also aware that mortgages are not given in the states unless they can be passed onto F and F. Meanwhile many of the banks there have insane leverage and continue to suffer horrendous loan loss rates.
I think it is different here. And our rates are not likely to have much pressure upon them until other parts of the worlds economy can get off life support.
But I am considering taking a fixed rate loan. Hard to see there being penalties to end that loan if rates go up and i want to pay it off?
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