Monday, 4 January 2010

"Finnish real estate agency Huoneistokeskus said in a statement Tuesday that the number of house and flat transactions had doubled year-on-year in December.

It added that an exceptionally busy month would raise the full-year transactions total beyond 64,000, or close to this decade's annual average." STT, Tuesday, 29 December 2009

First it is important to understand that we are dealing with a real estate agency, as it may not be a surprise that they jump on any piece of data that could be used to support their business.

And it is the case with the above article.

Comparing data Year on Year in december is rather mean. One must have in mind that the credit market and the financial system was on the brink of collapse last december. Icelandic banks were closing doors in Finland while the forest industry took the opportunitty to reorganize itself by shedding thousands of jobs. So confidence was indeed very low and housing transactions was low.

So It doubled, is that significant? it's a little bit like the deposit in my bank account, it went from 0.01 cents to 0.02 cents...well I got 100% interest when everybody is getting under 1%... you got the point? Same as the stock market gain 60% since March however many investors are still 20-40% down from the peak.

The other point is the "full-year transactions ... close to this decade's annual average", again you wonder if a politician has been working with Huoneistokeskus or at least helping writing such statement. First the full extent of the bubble started in 2003-2004, that is 5 years ago, the average for the decade is far lower that the average in the past 5 years where excess were made. Second close to doesn't mean equal...

Nevertheless, transactions are falling (note it won't be in a straight line) and it will continue. Nobody knows for how long maybe until a big shock comes (sudden increase of short term interest rates) followed by a readjustment as in previous periods...

Disclaimer : whatever is said above does not reflect the opinion of the writer or any one who makes comments on it. This was most probably written by some unknown force, that remind us not to underestimate the power of internet and the lack of knowledge on how the information is controlled, created and disseminated.

No comments: