Friday, 19 March 2010

"Old Europe"...The Finnish side in a picture

Number of persons aged under 15 in Finland’s population in 1875–2009

According to Statistics Finland, the number of persons aged under 15 in Finland’s population is the lowest in over 100 years.

This post should be put into context with what was said in a previous post: "Population Perspective"


Andrew said...

The ECB extends the bail out for banks. Ireland bails out the two main banks. Finland closes Sophia bank which strangely only began life early in 2009. Supposedly new banking regulations will be in place by end of year.

London prices up in mini boom - all regions up year on year except Northern Ireland. Australian house prices almost manic in places like Melbourne - as RBA warns homebuyers rates will rise and there are no guarantees of capital gains.

Sellers listings increasing in Finland after winter but detached listings for Helsinki still falling

Billpete002 said...

I found this interesting considered that the manufacturing mth/mth is down along with consumer spending in Finland..

Certainly having a 10% unemployment (which is predicted to rise) is effecting consumer spending.

Does anyone think the ASP (?) account which the Finnish government provides a 3k bonus for first time buyers has anything to do with the current binge in house buying?

All the sucker young folks racing out to buy houses before the ASP/bonus expires? Much like 'Cash for Clunkers' in the US - where everyone was going mad to trade in their still working car.

I think the increased debt is also proof of things falling apart here in Finland, once again a 10% unemployment lowers the slave master's coffers, but there must be other things at work than less revenues - I am not an expert in Finnish - yet - but my assumption is giving monies to construction companies and public works to delay the 'big one'.

Anyone know what else is causing the Finns to have a projected 3.9% debt - that may rise more throughout the year?

Andrew said...

Personally i grew up believing that land and property were safer than other investments. Look at the mess we are now in! Ireland had ponzi financing of construction companies and even the bank of ireland was supporting one of the larger Buy to Let empires in the UK of Fergus wilson. Ireland being in the Euro and german banks supporting the irish property stupidity means the european taxpayer is up for supporting those gains that are already spent. Add in spanish and Greek stupidity etc etc and you can see the euro cannot remain valueable. It has to be devalued. Importantly the German banks will be loving it.

The only way out that the politicians and bankers can understand is devaluation and inflation.

I am assuming that come 5 years time there is still a Finland and a Helsinki housing market. Obviously it is a gamble. An immensely resource rich Russia could be our saviour or the cause of our hell in the coming inflationary mess.

I have no doubt we are in the kind of mess that has precedent every so many generations. Good luck to all!

Billpete002 said...

@Andrew - Problem with land/housing is that it is very illiquid if you need to get rid of it quickly - like during the housing depression in the USA or Ireland - you are stuck.

At least with money/stocks etc. you can dump them at the tip of a hat.

I view housing as a one way bet for most people - because they have that very sentiment "safe as houses" or "housing prices always go up" - so people invest into houses with 20-30 year mortgages in the hopes their investment is worth more tomorrow (20 to 30 years down the road) than today. And if something happens between then and you owning it - you 'lost' your bet - but unlike stocks you can't get rid of the sucker easily.

That isn't to say land isn't valuable - it's perhaps the most valuable (depending what it's used for).

Andrew said...

A stock gives you lowest ranking order of payout and an opportunity to share in profits.

At least if you have deposit money you are ahead of the banks shareholders if a bank fails. The best company in the world can fail for its shareholders in difficult times and be recapitalised for somebody elses profit in better times.

Gold or cash can be stolen.

Nothing is particularly safe.

HousingFinland said...

...just back from some holiday...

quite an interesting discussion above...

Regarding stock versus housing...

It is true that stock are generally highly liquid, and if a good money management is applied it can be a safe bet i.e diversification, strong company, good dividend, etc...

Like all assets, if you buy at the top you increase the risk of losing...which is what I think is hapenning for the Finnish housing market - it is all evident that we have a the intensity and length of the correction has to be seen...

Land does not produce any thing, in the contrary it needs labour to do anything of it, it does not give you any in that sense it does not make sense to hold land, in general, except for speculating reasons...what goes up goes down: law of gravity...

Anonymous said...

We bought our house 2,5 years ago and it seems to have going up in price by indeed at least 15% for the moment. A piece of land we bought 6 years ago has doubled it's value so 100% increase.

No matter what happens in the nearby future, people that bought there house against a good price or several years ago, should not be too afraid.

If there is a bubble, and it would burst, supply/ demand in Finland metropolitan area would keep them afloat quite nicely i believe.

The other thing is that we are actually heading for increased inflation, simply because governments are issuing more money.

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