Monday, 24 June 2013

Finnish Housing bear market ... two decades?

That's it.

In the past 4 years the market was fuelled by cheap interest rates and stubborn housing buyers & sellers thinking that there is only one direction for the price, going up - the sky being the limit. And of course, also fuelled by the media & bankers - the devil being in the details...

Now, the main question is for how long the correction will last..
I think this time it is different that 1990's (short, abrupt correction then massive and persistent recovery ) - it looks more like a japan style housing scenario - a painfully long drop of prices over two decades?

At the end, we are entering an era where elderly will rule the kingdom :-), as Japanese did in the early 90's- a situation that saw their housing market peaking.

Also , the only chance for Finland is immigration, but immigrants come for jobs, would Finland  be able to attract enough of them? I have some doubt unless there is an economical shocks somewhere in the southern Europe or in neighbours countries :-) - there is , but it is temporary, I think those countries are restructuring themselves (economically & politically), like a phoenix they may arise from ashes....unless they don't...then...

While at the same time beyond the Turku region, far away in a land conquered half a century ago, an important event is unfolding:  The US central banker blinked eyes, and spoke of reducing its artificial monetary support which sent interest rates in the north direction and scared the stock markets around the world.

I think, without being superstitious, 2013 is the turn around in this century :-) (boom boom)


Andrew said...

The cliffs of Moher in County Claire are built from shale which is very unstable and yet the walls placed by monks hundreds of years ago are still visible here and there just back from the cliff. Occasionally a few hundred thousand tonnes of rock falls into the sea but overall not much happens for a very very long time.

Of course you would imagine that something so unstable would have to fall down very very quickly.

Daily the immense forces coming from storms generated across the atlantic pound away and you get the odd bit of change but overall nothing much seems to happen at all. Of course one day all of Ireland will be swept away along with England and then Sweden and onwards to Finland.

Maybe it will all happen in 2014?

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