Monday, 5 November 2007

"The great prophets of the past"

This appellative is obviously not intended to be a compliment but rather a criticism for not being able to predict the future.

Some background:
-1929: The Great Depression (also known in the U.K. as the Great Slump) was a dramatic, worldwide economic downturn beginning in some countries as early as 1928

-2001-2002: Finland plunge into a recession. Technology shares slumped.

-2007: US Housing Slump, the real estate bubble burst. Interest rate were 5.25% in August 2007.

-2007: Euro interest rates rose from 2% (December 2005) to 4% (November 2007).

Some predictions:
"There is no Bubble to burst (US)" - Jim Folkman, Vice President Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico, 23 Sept. 2005

"An actual price bubble cannot be seen on the Finnish housing market, and sudden changes on the price level are not in sight." - Tapiola Group Senior Economist Jari Järvinen, 22 Jun.2005

"The idea that we are going to see a collapse in the housing market seem improbable (US)" - John Snow, US Treasury secretary, 20 Sept. 2005

"US FED continues to increase the interest rates gradually towards a “neutral” level... 3.5 percent." - Tapiola Group Senior Economist Jari Järvinen, 22 Jun.2005

"At present, there are no grounds (For the ECB) either to raise or lower the interest rates." - Tapiola Group Senior Economist Jari Järvinen, 22 Jun.2005

"...a serious depression seems improbable (US)" - Harvard Economic Society, 10 Nov. 1929

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook is bright (US)", Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, early 1930

"The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, or ETLA, sees the next five years in Finland as a period of continued economic growth.", ETLA, 06 Jun. 2000

"The fundamental point is that the British economy is strong..." -Alistair Darling, UK Treasury chief, 05 Nov. 2007

"Housing is still the best investment, without questions (US)"- Stan Sieron, Illinois Association of Realtors, 29 jul. 2006

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