Tuesday, 30 October 2007

Future Price Evolution, what do you think?



For those who are not aware of the flat price evolution throughout the past, you will learn that housing price follow a cyclical pattern. Boom are always been followed by bust.

Like in the previous boom, we had two price growth phase that lasted 10 years:
1979 until 1989 with a stabilization level established during the period of 1982-1986.

Similarly, we have had a boom that lasted (?) 10 years:
1997 until 2007 with a stabilization try around 2001-2003.


Now we have technically 5 possible scenarios.

+6% : an even more dangerous and destabilizing housing price bubble inflation (Wage, food inflation...)

+3% : a wish from Central bankers and politicians and most importantly a survival level for construction builder.

-10%: a soft landing

-30%: a return a natural equilibrium (economical expansion back to normal, income growth anemic)

-40%: a hard landing (economical shock, US in recession followed by Asian or BRICS Recession)

These scenarios will in fact be under the influence of many parameters that are beyond the control of Finnish Politicians and central bankers:

-ECB, US Fed monetary policy mistake
-Bad recession in the US
-Oil price over 100$, Euro over 1.50 on the dollar. Inflation higher than 3%.
-Recession in Brazil/Russia/India/China (BRIC, Emerging countries)
-Long term interest rates shooting up (inflation, strikes out of control)

80 comments:

Anonymous said...

"-Bad recession in the US
-Oil price over 100$, Euro over 1.50 on the dollar. Inflation higher than 3%."

Really good forecast!! as it is hapenning now...let's see if the rest, of your forecasts are right...

Anonymous said...

Recession in Russia :) no way, guys, you never been there!

Anonymous said...

I agree China and India might see a recession.

Russia, hard to tell. It depends on the price of oil. If it goes under 40 dollars..then clearly it will plunge the country into a slowdown.

I have heard that inflation start to rise at unconfortable level. So I'm wondering how the citizens, especially the poor, will react. That could be an embarassement at political level...

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