Monday, 1 September 2008

Spanish Housing Disaster: "my gosh!"


"Spanish car sales fell 41.3 percent in August from the same month a year earlier, marking the fourth straight month of decline and the biggest drop this year amid a severe economic slowdown, data showed on Monday"

You know what? the housing price there are gonna fall by over 80% if the ECB doesn't intervene and quickly... On one hand you have the english "expat" or other speculators that are fleeing the market and on the other about 80% of the population owning a house, with 97% of people being on adjustable rate mortgage (similar as in Finland though), this housing seem to have no floor to fall to.

If you had plan to retire in costa del sol, wait another 2-4 years and buy back property for about 80% - 90% discount.

Indeed Greed, is severely punished over there.

Do I feel investing in Finland while massive opportunities are being created abroad in the next 5 years. My answer is straight: NO. Nor, I'm going to work my whole life for a Nordic bank that have behaved irresponsably (reckless lending and speculating through its real estate branches) . Neither would i participate into bailing out construction builders such as YIT that have been selling "knigthmare trap" to young household or first time buyers.

17 comments:

Andrew said...

Housing Finland

>>You know what? the housing price there are gonna fall by over 80% if the ECB doesn't intervene and quickly... In one hand you have the english "expat" and other speculators that are fleeing the market and onthe other about 80% of the population owning a house, with 97% of people being on adjustable rate mortgage (similar as in Finland though), this housing seem to have no floor to fall to.

The ECB is already intervening massively into the spanish property market by allowing the Spanish banks to deposit their unsaleable mortgages with the ECB via the extraordinary lending procedures that have been in place for the last 9 months or so.

http://www.euromoney.com/Article/1884656/ABS-Spanish-banks-take-ECB-repo-with-both-hands.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e224d26e-48ff-11dc-b326-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aYMPbrkCLJHY&refer=news

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7759554

Join the dots. . . . . . .painful though it might be.

Anonymous said...

"The number of first registrations of passenger cars fell by more than 14 per cent from the year-ago period in August, the Finnish Information Centre of the Automobile Sector (AuT) said Monday"

That's for Finland, not better--and you have to remember that here banks are still giving credit to anybody and tax reforms were done in the car sector...still sales are plummeting...

-Anton

Andrew said...

"you have to remember that here banks are still giving credit to anybody "

Anton, Can you give an anecdotal example of what you mean by this?

Anonymous said...

One Example Nordea:
"Loan up to 25,000 euros without security"
http://www.nordea.fi/760000.html

-Anton

andrew said...

Anton

It says *up to*. Suggesting income dependant. So i had a look at the page. It says "The credit is *usually* granted without security *from* 400 euros up to 25,000 euros."

So i had a look at the application form. At the top you have to tick one of two options for the language you speak. Finnish or Swedish. So that excludes me and most Romanians:-)

And you have to give your employment. I am entreprenurial and that excludes me - I *have* to rely on my poor partners income or proven rental income for Finnish lending even with massive Loan To Value security. It asks amongst other things if you own a house and if you are conscripted or released.

You also sign consent for a credit check to be undertaken.

So its a standard form to make sure you can pay and is certainly not for "anybody". Even text message lending is probably linked in some manner to successful maintenance of a cell phone bill *and* the ability to get a cell phone account in Finland?

I am not poor and i cant get what i consider to be a modest loan in this country! They will not even allow me to open a bank account - so far - even though i did have an account a few years back. To get the loan you already have to have the account which already rules out some people.

As far as i can see Nordea as prime example is not giving loans to anybody fast:-)

Andrew said...

And more on why there are reasons rates could rise:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4656321.ece

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