Tuesday, 5 January 2010

Variable Rates and Housing Bubble

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s low interest rates probably didn’t cause the past decade’s housing bubble and that better regulation would have been more effective in limiting the boom.

Increased use of variable-rate and interest-only mortgages, and the “associated decline of underwriting standards,” were more responsible for the bubble, Bernanke said today in a speech at an economics conference in Atlanta."
"Use of variable rates are more responsible for the housing bubble"... however obvious it always make more impact when coming from the "man of the year 2009" or simply the chairman of the Federal reserve, the entity that sets interest rates in the U.S. .

Maybe The Fed chairman Bernanke should talk to our Banks in Finland and maybe to our governors in "Bank of Finland" or (sleeping) regulators to wake up before more damages are made.

Indeed in Finland 95% of mortgage rates are based on variable rates. Knowing that interest rates are hoovering at around 1%, something that has never been witnessed in Europe, could create even bigger distortions in many markets including the housing market.

9 comments:

Andrew said...

Bernanke was i think mainly referring to adjustable rate mortgages while failing to take responsibility for his own contributions to the mess. His mentor and boss celibrated the adjustable rate mortgages and said yes yes yes.

The ECB also had unusually low interest rates and still does.

In Finland today a variable rate mortgage will be considerably more than a floating rate mortgage.

We took out an interest only mortgage because we were fairly confidant M Trichet will continue to do his job of devaluing the Euro. I think we can be fairly confidant he will deliver that, because increasing prices is 'his mandate and the compass he steers by'

HousingFinland said...

@Andrew "We took out an interest only mortgage"

Did you really take that kind of "toxic" mortgage (since you are not paying your principal)?

Andrew said...

If M Trichet fails to do his job we can pay off the mortgage one way or another.

HousingFinland said...

I trust the ECB with regard to their mandate i.e keeping inflation low

It is true, one could say that housing inflation was very high in the past few years...but if , as expected, it adjusts...then the overall situation will play in favor of the ECB.

Andrew said...

I have taken the bet that the ECB can be trusted with regard to their mandate i.e preventing deflation.

Presumably by around 2012 we will know how it worked out

HousingFinland said...

it is not only the ECB that prevented (or rather delayed) deflation but the combination of the effect of all the central bank world wide...but most of all it is Chinese massive stimulus and commodity buyer that put a pause in the deflation threat.

Now, Central banks cannot do much except hoping that the measure that has been done will be effective.

So you are right end of the year and 2011 will be the turning one way or another...

Andrew said...

For a while i was logging the China stimulus stuff on an old thread here but i got no responses

HousingFinland said...

Regarding the China stimulus ...you can see that they start to worry about their housing bubble (start to tigthen lending), on top of that they had record GDP growth (if you believe the figures)...that tells you that their economy is on the brink of overheating....

Andrew said...

The chinese seem to be pretty good at making the banks alter their monetary policies with quite short notice to change conditions

Meanwhile I notice that euribor is back towards the lows of November so the stimulus continues here