Saturday, 1 January 2011

Happy New Year 2011 !!


Would 2011 be the year that demonstrate that housing is solid as rock or inflated as one of the biggest multi-generation housing bubble?

"Solid as Rock or Rock and Roll?"

My guess is that all the possible ammunition have been fired (low interest rates, government subsidies, municipalities land cartel, no (or incompetent, biased) regulators, economical and monetary subsidies, all subsidies that have been fired around the world...).

So the only one left is the high inflation card which will be disastrous for Europe and the Euro in particular and certainly not in the card of the next president of the ECB (The German austerity oriented Mr Axel "Axe Inflation" Weber).

Nevertheless, I will start as planned the countdown quarter by quarter of the Finnish Housing price.

In the meantime, enjoy the start of a new decade, one that will surely be different to the past one. By the way, not sure what it will mean but my first post for 2011 will be on the date : 01.01.11-01.11.00 (the binary decade)

12 comments:

Eric said...

Happy new year!
Indeed a great decade to start ... on the agenda ... I would say Spain bail out first and/or second quarter ...
An exciting year to come ...

Anonymous said...

Love your picture.

Are you trying to say that:
"housing will be safe as rocks",
or
"the whole housing thing will soon roll down the side of the hill"?

I can 'read' both cases in the picture ;)

Happy New Year

"Island Crow"

HousingFinland said...

Thanks Eric, Island Crow and Al.

Well I could have said:

"Solid as Rock or Rock and Roll?"

:-)

Anonymous said...

"Experts: Finns Struggle to Repay Mortgages

Too many households in Finland are overburdened by debt, reports the regional daily Aamulehti. The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy ETLA says home mortgages are too large when they are double or triple the annual household income.

Jussi Mustonen of ETLA says that a mortgage between 160,000 and 240,000 euros is too burdensome for a family with a total annual income of 80,000 euros. ...."

http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/01/experts_finns_struggle_to_repay_mortgages_2293203.htm

This shouldn't be news, but if it is talked about enough in the papers then something might get into the general consiousness of the wider public.

"Island Crow"

Anonymous said...

(C A L V E R L E Y)
----------------------
It was 2004 when we spoke the first time about a Finnish housing bubble.

It was 2004, when we spoke the first time about a US housing bubble.

It was also 2004, when we first spoke of a housing bubble in the Netherlands, and in Spain, and in Ireland.

And yes, it was also 2004, when we first spoke of a housing bubble in Australia.
---
I couldn't believe it then. All those bubbles. Couldn't believe it for a second. It seemed to be gargantuan. Property bubbles are the ones that really hit an economy very hard.
-----
In 2007, we spoke the first time about a possible housing bubble in China.
-----
Now, we have 2011. And I've lost my hope and my faith.

It will be a decisive year and a decisive decade in human history.

Good luck to all of you. Whereever you are.

Anonymous said...

´Probably, you may try to understand those very, very strange things of the already-changed world from such aspects:

1. When the bankers can default their tens of trillion $ of debt, they will just do it immediately. If you have a close look at the “reputation” of a bank to a customer, you may find it is worth only 50k € to the banker, not more…
2. The world geo-politics will keep the EU-wide bubble for a longer period. You will find this. It is clearly one major power likes to kill € to cover its debt black-hole, while the other power does not like that… In the long run, EU’s future (including its economic future) depends on if their people can find their own identity in this world. I am afraid they currently haven’t .

Mickey said...

Mmmm. On the other hand, back to the Finnish housing matter, almost 3 years of constant increase now. So I was also hopeful and eager to be able to bargain apartments prices, but it is still not feasible.
How long will we have to wait?

Billpete002 said...

@Mickey - ah the proverbial question of when.

Any good economist will tell you there is no way to know the future - there's too many variables to know.

We all know that there is a high chance of a collapse in housing prices coming, but we won't know when - until it happens.

I would suspect "end game" will occur with rising interest rates. Since the ECB has been resolute in just dumping money at this point we've been staying afloat because of cheap (and decreasingly good) money.

When that goes away and interest rates rise - we'll see foreclosures.

My recommendation? Rent, wait, and see.

Anonymous said...

Where is that house located ?

Anonymous said...

Got it : http://www.trendir.com/house-design/stone-house-exterior-mountain-home-in-portugal.html

Mikey said...

Nice rise in the interest rates. Let's see if it goes on like this. (It should)

HousingFinland said...

ok...ladies and gentlemen...I promise I provide a new article and try to give an update of the situation...

I have been quite busy...but don't worry, I still think housing price will go down... so many factors. I will highlight them.