We have all in all 6 clearly defined scenario - that a fact. The question is what will enable one of those scenario, also what are today's elements that could favor one of those.
Let's first describe each of those scenario , secondly set the current political, economical and social context, and finally put some probability on each one, highlighting one. All need to be done in a neutral and analytical manner.
Since lately I have been quite busy - I will complete that on a regular basis. You are free to provide some elements. It will be very fruitfull to have a collaborative approach in this analysis.
To help on that here are some important chart to take into account:
Year-on-year changes in index of wage and salary earnings 2000–2010, per cent :
12 Month Euribor charts:
Housing Price inflation adjusted - 2000 as the base (100) :
Finnish housing Loan rate reference:
An interesting point: Trichet, Liikanen are all but leaving this year.