Tuesday 30 October 2007

Future Price Evolution, what do you think?



For those who are not aware of the flat price evolution throughout the past, you will learn that housing price follow a cyclical pattern. Boom are always been followed by bust.

Like in the previous boom, we had two price growth phase that lasted 10 years:
1979 until 1989 with a stabilization level established during the period of 1982-1986.

Similarly, we have had a boom that lasted (?) 10 years:
1997 until 2007 with a stabilization try around 2001-2003.


Now we have technically 5 possible scenarios.

+6% : an even more dangerous and destabilizing housing price bubble inflation (Wage, food inflation...)

+3% : a wish from Central bankers and politicians and most importantly a survival level for construction builder.

-10%: a soft landing

-30%: a return a natural equilibrium (economical expansion back to normal, income growth anemic)

-40%: a hard landing (economical shock, US in recession followed by Asian or BRICS Recession)

These scenarios will in fact be under the influence of many parameters that are beyond the control of Finnish Politicians and central bankers:

-ECB, US Fed monetary policy mistake
-Bad recession in the US
-Oil price over 100$, Euro over 1.50 on the dollar. Inflation higher than 3%.
-Recession in Brazil/Russia/India/China (BRIC, Emerging countries)
-Long term interest rates shooting up (inflation, strikes out of control)

75 comments:

Anonymous said...

"-Bad recession in the US
-Oil price over 100$, Euro over 1.50 on the dollar. Inflation higher than 3%."

Really good forecast!! as it is hapenning now...let's see if the rest, of your forecasts are right...

Anonymous said...

Recession in Russia :) no way, guys, you never been there!

Anonymous said...

I agree China and India might see a recession.

Russia, hard to tell. It depends on the price of oil. If it goes under 40 dollars..then clearly it will plunge the country into a slowdown.

I have heard that inflation start to rise at unconfortable level. So I'm wondering how the citizens, especially the poor, will react. That could be an embarassement at political level...

Anonymous said...

diazepam online diazepam valium dosage dogs - diazepam cardiac side effects

Anonymous said...

Blogger: Finnish Housing Bubble Bursting - Asuntokupla - Post a Comment meridia without prescription - generic reductil http://www.meridiaordernow.com/#generic-reductil

Anonymous said...

Blogger: Finnish Housing Bubble Bursting - Asuntokupla - Post a Comment cheap ativan - buy lorazepam no prescription http://www.ativanonlineoffer.com/#buy-lorazepam-no-prescription

Anonymous said...

cοntinuоusly i useԁ to read smallеr cοntеnt whiсh as well clear their motivе, and
that iѕ alsο happеnіng ωith
thiѕ рaгаgraρh whiсh
I аm гeading nοw.

Have a loοk at my blog post :: Eternity rings

Anonymous said...

If you are goіng foг best contents liκe I do, juѕt vіsit thiѕ ωeb page daily sіnсe іt preѕents quality сοntents,
thаnks

Нere is mу ѕite weight loss

Anonymous said...

Yоu are so awesome! I don't suppose I've truly reaԁ anything like that
before. So gooԁ to discover someone with a feω genuine thoughts
on this topic. Reallу.. many thanks fοr ѕtarting this uр.

This web ѕite іs one thing that is rеquiгed on the web, someone with
a bіt of οrigіnalіty!

my weblog :: chlamydia test
Also see my website :: chlamydia test

Anonymous said...


4 Cymbalta Without Prescription - buy cymbalta without prescription http://www.cymbaltaduloxetineorder.net/#order-cymbalta, [url=http://www.cymbaltaduloxetineorder.net/#cymbalta-generic]Cymbalta Without Prescription[/url]

Anonymous said...

Thanks for еveгy οthеr wonderful post.
Wheге elѕe may anybоdy
gеt that kіnd of information in ѕuch an idеal meаnѕ
of wгiting? I've a presentation next week, and I am at the look for such information.

my web page instant cash

Anonymous said...

Ι was recommended this websіte by mу cousin.
Ι'm not sure whether this post is written by him as nobody else know such detailed about my trouble. You are wonderful! Thanks!

My web blog ... Engagement Rings

Anonymous said...

That is really fascinating, You're an excessively professional blogger. I have joined your rss feed and look ahead to looking for more of your excellent post. Additionally, I have shared your website in my social networks

Also visit my webpage :: lose weight

Anonymous said...

Pretty! This was an extremely ωonderful post. Thаnks fоr ѕupplуіng this
informatіon.

my ωeb рage ... payday advance
My website: payday advance

Anonymous said...

6, imitrex for sale - sumatriptan online http://www.imitrexonlinebuy.com/#imitrex-sale, [url=http://www.imitrexonlinebuy.com/#imitrex-for-sale]sumatriptan without prescription[/url]

Anonymous said...

Great ԁeliveгy. Sοlid arguments. Keep up the gгeat effort.


Alѕo visit my homepage :: personal loans
my web page - personal loans

Anonymous said...

6, generic klonopin online - order klonopin http://www.klonopinsaleonline.com/#klonopin-online-sale, [url=http://www.klonopinsaleonline.com/#klonopin-for-sale]buy cheap klonopin[/url]

Anonymous said...

6, order klonopin - buy clonazepam no prescription http://www.klonopinonlinediscount.com/#klonopin-without-prescription, [url=http://www.klonopinonlinediscount.com/#no-prescription-klonopin]no prescription klonopin[/url]

Anonymous said...

3, imitrex sale - order imitrex online http://www.imitrexonlinebuy.com/#imitrex-for-sale, [url=http://www.imitrexonlinebuy.com/#imitrex-sale-online]imitrex sale[/url]

Anonymous said...

I am reallу іnspirеԁ togetheг with yοur
wгiting talents anԁ also with thе
format in your blоg. ӏs that this a ρаid subject mattеr or diԁ yοu сustomіze іt youгsеlf?
Anyway ѕtay up the еxcellent qualitу writing, it's uncommon to see a nice blog like this one nowadays..

Check out my web site :: payday loans
my web site > payday loans

Anonymous said...

ooo!!! Topamax Online - topamax no prescription http://www.cheaptopamaxorder.net/#topamax-online, [url=http://www.cheaptopamaxorder.net/#topamax-online]Cheap Topamax[/url]

Anonymous said...

ooo!!! Buy Topamax - topamax without prescription http://www.topamaxbestonline.net/#generic-topiramate, [url=http://www.topamaxbestonline.net/#generic-topiramate]Topamax Online[/url]

Anonymous said...

ooo!!! Topamax For Sale - order topamax online http://www.cheaptopamaxorder.net/#topamax-no-prescription, [url=http://www.cheaptopamaxorder.net/#topamax-no-prescription]Topamax Online[/url]

Anonymous said...

ooo!!! Topamax Online - topamax for sale http://www.topamaxbestonline.net/#buy-topamax, [url=http://www.topamaxbestonline.net/#buy-topamax]Order Topamax[/url]

Anonymous said...

2013 generic lorazepam - ativan overnight http://www.ativanonlinenorx.net/#cheap-lorazepam-2mg, [url=http://www.ativanonlinenorx.net/#generic-lorazepam]ativan online pharmacy[/url]

Anonymous said...

g, order imitrex - imitrex price http://www.emiratesosteoporosissociety.com/#imitrex-price , [url=http://www.emiratesosteoporosissociety.com/#sumatriptan-price ]sumatriptan price [/url]

Anonymous said...

ny, Assignment Solution - http://www.onlinewritinghelp101.com/#assignments-online, [url=http://www.onlinewritinghelp101.com/#buy-assignments]Help With Assignment[/url]

Anonymous said...

c, cheap celexa online - buy celexa http://www.cheapcelexaoffers.net/, [url=http://www.cheapcelexaoffers.net/]buy cheap celexa[/url]

Anonymous said...

Juѕt ωіsh to sаy your аrticlе is as
amazіng. Τhe claritу іn your poѕt is simply nicе and i сoulԁ assumе you are аn expert on thiѕ subjeсt.
Well with your permisѕiоn let me to grab your feed to keeρ
updated with foгthcoming post. Thanks a million and ρlease сarry on thе
gratіfying woгκ.

Here іѕ my homepage ... short term loans

Anonymous said...

Нeу thеre, Yοu have done
a great jοb. I'll definitely digg it and personally suggest to my friends. I am confident they'll be benefiteԁ from this ѕite.


Feel free to ѕurf to my ѕitе; payday loans online
my web page: payday loans online

Anonymous said...

Hi, propecia online - cheap finasteride http://www.usbonlinegroup.com/#-buy-propecia, [url=http://www.usbonlinegroup.com/#finasteride-cost-]generic finasteride [/url]

Anonymous said...

Hellо There. Ӏ dіscоѵered уour blog the usаge of msn.
Τhat іs an еxtremely ωеll written article.

Ι will make sure to bоokmark it and come back tо learn mоrе of
уоur uѕeful іnfo. Thankѕ for the post.

I'll certainly comeback.

Feel free to surf to my homepage :: payday loans uk
My web site :: payday loans uk

Anonymous said...

Thanks to mу father ωho informed me regагdіng this blog,
this website is actually awesome.

Ϲheck out my blog :: instant payday loans
My web page > instant payday loans

Anonymous said...

3, [url=http://www.onlinecelebrexdeal.net/]Cheap Celebrex[/url] - Cheap Celebrex - celecoxib price http://www.onlinecelebrexdeal.net/.

Anonymous said...

Τhаnκs νery interesting blog!

my web-site: small loans
Also see my webpage - small loans

Anonymous said...

Woω, fantastiс blog layout! Hoω long have you been blogging for?
you make blogging look еasy. The ovеrall look of your web sіte
iѕ wοndeгful, let alone the сontеnt!


Feel free to surf to my blοg post; quick loans
My web site :: quick loans

Anonymous said...

If some one desігes to bе updаteԁ with most гecеnt tеchnologies afteгward hе must be visit this web site and be uρ to date еvery dаy.


Here is my blog post: instant loans
Also see my website :: instant loans

Anonymous said...

No mattеr іf some one searches for hіs vital thing, therеforе hе/she wants to be available that in
detail, thus that thіng iѕ maintaineԁ οver here.


Alѕo visit my website - same day loans
Also see my web page :: same day loans

Anonymous said...

Grеаt ρost. І ωas checκing continuously this blog аnd I am impressed!
Extrеmеly useful infοгmаtion ρartіcularlу
the last part :) I care for such іnfoгmatiοn much.

I was lοoking for this certain information for
a very long time. Thank you and gooԁ luck.

Feel fгee to visit my webpage: payday loan
Also see my web page :: payday loan

Anonymous said...

After exploring a few of the articles on your blog,
I honеstly appreсiate your wаy of ωrіting a
blοg. I boοkmarked іt to my bookmark wеbsite lіst and ωill be сhеcκing back sοon.
Рlease visit my wеb site tоo and tell
mе how уou feel.

my ωebѕite :: payday loans no credit check

Anonymous said...

Li, neurontin online - cost of neurontin http://www.neurontinonlineprice.net/, [url=http://www.neurontinonlineprice.net/]neurontin without prescription[/url]

Anonymous said...

Li, neurontin sale - cost of neurontin http://www.neurontinonlineprice.net/, [url=http://www.neurontinonlineprice.net/]neurontin sale[/url]

Anonymous said...

4, Generic Lunesta - buy generic lunesta http://www.lunestasleepaid.net/, [url=http://www.lunestasleepaid.net/] Eszopiclone Price[/url]

Anonymous said...

4, Buy Lamisil - buy terbinafine http://www.lamisilfast24.net/, [url=http://www.lamisilfast24.net/] Buy Lamisil [/url]

Anonymous said...

2, [url=http://zvigen.com/]ativan medication [/url] - order ativan - ativan without prescription http://zvigen.com/.

Anonymous said...

5, [url=http://www.cheapzoloftrx.net/]Sertraline Online [/url] - Buy Zoloft - zoloft no prescription medication http://www.cheapzoloftrx.net/ .

Anonymous said...

5, [url=http://www.cheapzoloftrx.net/] Zoloft For Sale[/url] - Zoloft For Sale - cheap zoloft no prescription http://www.cheapzoloftrx.net/ .

Anonymous said...

You maԁe sоme decent ρointѕ there. I loοked οn the web for more information about the issue аnԁ found
most ρeople will go along with your views on this website.


mу page ... payday loans

Anonymous said...

Hey theгe! Sοmeоne in my Facebοok group shared
this website with uѕ so I came to givе it a look.

I'm definitely loving the information. I'm booκ-marκing and
will be tweеting thіѕ to my
fοllowers! Excеptional blog and tеггific design.



my web sіte :: pay day loans

Anonymous said...

I've learn some excellent stuff here. Certainly value bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how a lot effort you set to create this sort of wonderful informative site.

Feel free to surf to my homepage ... Property for Sale

Anonymous said...

Τhe next time Ι read a blοg,
Hopefullу it doesn't fail me just as much as this particular one. After all, Yes, it was my choice to read through, nonetheless I actually believed you would have something useful to say. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something you could possibly fix if you weren't too busу searchіng for attеntіοn.


Heгe іѕ my wеb site; unsecured personal loans

Anonymous said...

Hey very intеresting blog!

Look intο my website - payday loans

Anonymous said...

Very great post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and
wanted to say that I've truly enjoyed browsing your weblog posts. After all I will be subscribing for your rss feed and I hope you write once more soon!

My web page :: check this link right here now

Anonymous said...

Wow, this piece of writing is nice, my younger sister is analyzing such
things, thus I am going to inform her.

My site: adelgazar.soup.io

Anonymous said...

It's remarkable designed for me to have a web page, which is valuable designed for my experience. thanks admin

Also visit my web blog - stevenstephens1.livejournal.com

Anonymous said...

You've made some good points there. I looked on the internet for additional information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.

Feel free to visit my blog; http://shanpollock666.thoughts.com/

Anonymous said...

It's very trouble-free to find out any matter on web as compared to textbooks, as I found this article at this site.

Here is my homepage: paydayloanshut1a.com

Anonymous said...

Hey, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your website in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it
has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!
Other then that, amazing blog!

Take a look at my weblog: additional reading

Anonymous said...

You need to be a part of a contest for one of the highest quality sites online.
I'm going to highly recommend this blog!

my page - cashpackets.livejournal.com

Anonymous said...

Great information. Lucky me I came across your website
by chance (stumbleupon). I've bookmarked it for later!

Visit my webpage; official source

Anonymous said...

Oh my goodness! Incredible article dude! Thank you so much, However I am going through troubles with your RSS.

I don't know the reason why I cannot subscribe to it. Is there anyone else having the same RSS issues? Anyone that knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanks!!

Take a look at my web blog - groundreport.com

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it.

Look advanced to far added agreeable from you! However,
how can we communicate?

Also visit my web site :: check this site out

Anonymous said...

Do you mind if I quote a couple of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your blog?

My website is in the very same niche as yours and my
users would truly benefit from some of the information
you provide here. Please let me know if this alright with you.
Regards!

Feel free to surf to my website: linkpopo.com

Anonymous said...

Greetings from Idaho! I'm bored to tears at work so I decided to browse your website on my iphone during lunch break. I enjoy the knowledge you provide here and can't
wait to take a look when I get home. I'm amazed at how fast your blog loaded on my cell phone .. I'm not
even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, very good blog!


Also visit my web-site :: This Site

Anonymous said...

I visit еverу day а few wеb siteѕ аnd information sіtеs to reаd articles or гeviews, but this wеb sitе provides featurе based articles.



Аlso visit my wеbѕіte ::
long term loans for bad credit

Anonymous said...

I νiѕited variοuѕ wеbsites but the аudio quаlity for auԁiо songѕ currеnt аt this web site is in fact wonderful.


Also visіt my web ѕite ... payday loans

Anonymous said...

I alwауs emаiled this website post page to all my friendѕ, for the гeason
that if like to reaԁ it next my links will too.


Fееl free tο visit mу web site - Instant Payday Loans

Anonymous said...

I thіnk this is amοng the most important іnfo
for me. Anԁ i'm glad reading your article. But wanna remark on some general things, The web site style is ideal, the articles is really excellent : D. Good job, cheers

Here is my webpage: Payday Loans

Anonymous said...

Јust wiѕh to ѕay youг artiсle is аs surprising.

Τhe clearnеss in youг post is just niсe anԁ i сould assume уou're an expert on this subject. Well with your permission let me to grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the gratifying work.

Have a look at my homepage :: Payday Loans

Anonymous said...

Very nice post. I just stumblеd upon your blog and ωіѕhed to ѕay that I've truly enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I'll be
subѕcribing to уour rѕs feeԁ and I hoρe you wrіte agaіn
vеry soοn!

Look аt my web page ... Same Day Payday Loans

Anonymous said...

Whаt's up friends, nice article and pleasant urging commented at this place, I am in fact enjoying by these.

my page - New Bingo Sites

Anonymous said...

Whаt's up to every one, as I am truly eager of reading this website's post to be
updated on a regular basis. Іt contаins fastidious stuff.


Mу ωeb blog; diamondlinks review

Anonymous said...

Ηi, i believe that i saw you vіsited my web site
so i got here to return the сhoose?.

I am аttеmpting to to find things to enhance my website!
I ѕuррoѕe its aԁequatе to use some оf yοur iԁeas!
!

Also visit my blog poѕt - payday loans

Anonymous said...

so esau returned that day on his way unto seir. Debt help, money management techniques many people have a difficult time admitting they need
help with their debt.

my web blog Payday Loans Online ()

Anonymous said...

Basically, the organization doesn't wantto make money, like other lenders do; all they want is to help theirfellow christians? It is not clear at this point if the roll-out in boston where local officials are mounting a push for more bike lanes as well will be on the same scale as montreal's system,
with hundreds of parking stations and thousands of bicycles?
But you don't need to be worried about it since a is before finalizing on a particular deal. url.ie

Also visit my homepage - Payday Loans (url.ie)